anchor Tie J, Wang Y, Tomasetti C, et al. "Circulating tumor DNA analysis detects minimal residual disease and predicts recurrence in patients with stage II colon cancer." Sci Transl Med. 2016;8(346):346ra92. The foundational prospective cohort (n=230 resected stage II colon cancer; 1,046 plasma samples) establishing that post-surgical ctDNA detection in the molecular-residual-disease (MRD) window identifies the subgroup at highest recurrence risk and could inform adjuvant decisions. This is the historical root of the sub-topic's entire evidence line: it supplied the prognostic signal — ctDNA-positive post-resection patients recur far more often than ctDNA-negative — that the DYNAMIC randomized trial (nod_ca77eb54) later converted into a prospective de-escalation policy test. Scope match is exact (stage II colon cancer, post-resection ctDNA in the MRD window, recurrence as the outcome), so no population caveat is needed; the design caveat is that this is an observational/prognostic cohort, not a treatment-randomized comparison — it motivates ctDNA-guided adjuvant decisions without itself testing them.

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